Economic confidence index is a composite index, encapsulating the evaluations, expectations and tendencies of both consumers and producers on general economic situation. The index is weighted aggregation of sub-indices of confidence indices of consumers, seasonally adjusted real sector (manufacturing industry), services, retail trade and construction sectors.

Sub-indices covered in economic confidence index:

Sub-indices of consumer confidence index

• Financial situation of household at present compared to the last 12 months
• Financial situation expectation of household over the next 12 months
• General economic situation expectation over the next 12 months
• Assessment on spending money on durable goods over next 12 months compared to the past 12 months

Sub-indices of real sector (manufacturing industry) confidence index

• Total amount of orders (current situation)
• Amount of stocks of finished goods (current situation)
• Volume of output (next 3 months)
• Total employment (next 3 months)
• Total amount of orders (past 3 months)
• Export orders (next 3 months)
• Fixed investment expenditure
• General business situation

Sub-indices of services confidence index

• Business situation over past 3 months
• Demand-turnover over past 3 months
• Demand-turnover expectation over next 3 months

Sub-indices of retail trade confidence index

• Business activity sales over past 3 months
• Current volume of stock
• Business activity-sales expectation over next 3 months

Sub-indices of construction confidence index

•  Current overall order books
•  Total employment expectation over next 3 months 

Classifications: Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, Revision 2 (NACE Rev. 2) is used in Business Tendency Surveys. International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08) is used for occupational classification in the Consumer Tendency Survey.

International and Regional Guidelines: The Joint Harmonised European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys user guide is used.

Source of Weights: Sectoral weighting coefficients that The Joint Harmonized EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys already use, are used to combine individual components of the economic confidence index. These weights, which are determined by two criteria: the ability to represent the sector and the relation with the reference component, are applied to the standardised component series.

The weights of the sectors whose sub-indices used are as below;

• Consumer                      :20%
• Manufacturing industry  :40%
• Services                         :30%
• Retail trade                    :5%
• Construction                  :5% 

These weights are not directly applied to the five confidence indices themselves but to their normalised individual sub-indices series as equally-distributed in each sector.

Geographical Coverage: Türkiye

Sectoral Coverage: Consumer, real sector (manufacturing industry), services, retail trade and construction sectors are covered.

• consumer confidence index, 4 sub-indices: series starting at January 2007 (with backcasted series for the period between January 2007 - December 2011)
• seasonally adjusted real sector (manufacturing industry) confidence index, 8 sub-indices: series starting at January 2007
• seasonally adjusted services sector confidence index, 3 sub-indices: series starting at January 2011
• seasonally adjusted retail trade sector confidence index, 3 sub-indices: series starting at January 2011
• seasonally adjusted construction sector confidence index, 2 sub-indices: series starting at January 2011.

Source of Data: Consumer Tendency Survey carried out in cooperation with the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), Business Tendency Survey (manufacturing industry) conducted by CBRT, Monthly Services Tendency Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Tendency Survey and Monthly Construction Tendency Survey conducted by TurkStat.

Sub-indices and indices are calculated by the data collected with these surveys in the first two weeks of each month.

Sub-indices used at the calculation of economic confidence index are gathered from the seasonally adjusted sectoral indices. No seasonal effect has been determined in the sub-indices used in the calculation of the consumer confidence index since January 2023.