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PRESS RELEASE

PRESS RELEASE

TECHNICAL INFO:
SERDAL YOLCU
INFO REQUEST:
Data Dissemination Group
+90 312 454 76 46    
+90 312 454 72 65
serdal.yolcu@tuik.gov.tr
bilgi@tuik.gov.tr
  /tuikbilgi
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Meta Data
Information forms and methodological documents about revisions carried out for the statistics produced in this scope of this press release can be reached from the links below.
 
Information form and methodological document about revision carried out on 30/01/2017:
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/indir/revizyon/ESGD_G_EGE_ENG.pdf
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/indir/metodolojikDokumanlar/ege_metod_en.pdf
 
Information form and methodological document about revision carried out on 27/04/2017:
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/indir/revizyon/2017_RBF_EN_ESGD_G_EGE.pdf
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/indir/metodolojikDokumanlar/ege_metod_en_27_04_2017.pdf

Information form about routine revision carried out on 30/01/2018:
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/indir/revizyon/2018_RBF_EN_ESGD_G_EGE.pdf

Information form about routine revision carried out on 30/01/2019:
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/indir/revizyon/2019_RBF_EN_ESGDB_GEG_EGE.pdf

Information form about routine revision carried out on 29/01/2020:
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/indir/revizyon/2020_RBF_EN_ESGDB_GEG_EGE.pdf

Information form and methodological document about the major revision carried out on 29/09/2020:
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/indir/revizyon/2020_09_RBF_Eng_KDIID_EGE.pdf
http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/indir/revizyon/ege_metod_en_2020.09.pdf
 

Economic confidence index is a composite index, encapsulating the evaluations, expectations and tendencies of both consumers and producers on general economic situation. The index is weighted aggregation of sub-indices of seasonally adjusted confidence indices of consumers, real sector (manufacturing industry), services, retail trade and construction sectors.

Sub-indices covered in economic confidence index:

Sub-indices of consumer confidence index

  • Financial situation of household at present compared to the last 12 months
  • Financial situation expectation of household over the next 12 months
  • General economic situation expectation over the next 12 months
  • Assessment on spending money on durable goods over next 12 months compared to the past 12 months

Sub-indices of real sector (manufacturing industry) confidence index

  • Total amount of orders (current situation)
  • Amount of stocks of finished goods (current situation)
  • Volume of output (next 3 months)
  • Total employment (next 3 months)
  • Total amount of orders (past 3 months)
  • Export orders (next 3 months)
  • Fixed investment expenditure
  • General business situation

Sub-indices of services confidence index

  • Business situation over past 3 months
  • Demand-turnover over past 3 months
  • Demand-turnover expectation over next 3 months

Sub-indices of retail trade confidence index

  • Business activity sales over past 3 months
  • Current volume of stock
  • Business activity-sales expectation over next 3 months

Sub-indices of construction confidence index

  •  Current overall order books
  •  Total employment expectation over next 3 months 


Classifications: Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, Revision 2 (NACE Rev. 2) is used in Business Tendency Surveys. International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08) is used for occupational classification in the Consumer Tendency Survey.

International and Regional Guidelines: The Joint Harmonised European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys user guide is used.

Economic confidence index is calculated compatible with the steps explained at the Joint Harmonized EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys user guide.

Economic confidence index is the weighted average of totally 20 standardised balance values of the components, that consists of seasonally adjusted consumer (4), real sector (manufacturing industry) (8), services (3), retail trade (3) and construction (2) sectors. The moments of the average and standard deviation values for standardisation are computed over a frozen sample. Frozen sample for 2020 is between January 2007 - December 2019. Although the long-term moments of the balance series are fairly stable due to their stationary nature, the sample is extended once a year to cover the last completed year to include latest developments. This expansion is the reason of the annual routine revision of whole series.

Before calculation steps as a preparation stage, at first data matrix for 20 sub-indices series are created and then balance matrix is created by extracting 100 from each value. The length of time series of 20 sub-indices of 5 sectors are as below;
  • seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index, 4 sub-indices: series starting at January 2007 (with backcasted series for the period between January 2007 - December 2011)
  • seasonally adjusted real sector (manufacturing industry) confidence index, 8 sub-indices: series starting at January 2007
  • seasonally adjusted services sector confidence index, 3 sub-indices: series starting at January 2011
  • seasonally adjusted retail trade sector confidence index, 3 sub-indices: series starting at January 2011
  • seasonally adjusted construction sector confidence index, 2 sub-indices: series starting at January 2011.
Based upon the balance series of the sub-indices, economic confidence index is calculated as below;

Each value of the sub-indices at the balance matrix is normalised by its serial’s frozen sample average and standart deviation value. Second, a composite serial is obtained with computing weighted sum of averages  of normalised balance values. Composite serial is normalised as average is equal to 0 and standard deviation is equal to 1. At last, weighted average is scaled to have a long-term mean of 100 and standard deviation of 10 to built economic confidence index.

Values of economic confidence index greater than 100 indicate an above-average confidence, whereas values below 100 indicate a below-average confidence.

Source of Data: Consumer Tendency Survey carried out in cooperation with the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), Business Tendency Survey (manufacturing industry) conducted by CBRT, Monthly Services Tendency Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Tendency Survey and Monthly Construction Tendency Survey conducted by TurkStat.

Sub-indices and indices are calculated by the data collected with these surveys in the first two weeks of each month.

Sub-indices used at the calculation of economic confidence index are the seasonally adjusted values.

System of Compilation: Economic confidence index is calculated by using the same reference month’s published five sector’s confidence sub-indices series and published before the end of the month.

Source of Weights: Sectoral weighting coefficients that The Joint Harmonized EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys already use, are used to combine individual components of the economic confidence index. These weights, which are determined by two criteria: the ability to represent the sector and the relation with the reference component, are applied to the standardised component series.

The weights of the sectors whose sub-indices used are as below;

  • Consumer                      :20%
  • Manufacturing industry  :40%
  • Services                         :30%
  • Retail trade                    :5%
  • Construction                  :5% 

These weights are not directly applied to the five confidence indices themselves but to their normalised individual sub-indices series as equally-distributed in each sector.

Geographical Coverage: Turkey

Sectoral Coverage: Consumer, real sector (manufacturing industry), services, retail trade and construction sectors are covered.