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PRESS RELEASE

PRESS RELEASE

TECHNICAL INFO:
Serdal YOLCU
INFO REQUEST:
Data Dissemination Group
+90 312 454 76 46    
+90 312 454 72 65
serdal.yolcu@tuik.gov.tr
bilgi@tuik.gov.tr
  /tuikbilgi
/tuikbilgi
Meta Data
The survey results provide a source for calculating Services, Retail Trade and Construction Confidence Indices.

Indices are compiled in accordance with the balance method of European Union. Balances are constructed as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative responses and 100 is added to this difference, thus forming a separate diffusion index for each question. Then, the general index for each sector is calculated by taking arithmetic means of the selected questions.

Index value can change between 0 and 200. Index value above 100 indicates an optimistic outlook, below 100 indicates a pessimistic outlook of the sector regarding to the economic activity.

Within the concept of business tendency statistics monthly implemented business tendency surveys in services, retail trade and construction sectors aim to find out current business situation and near future expectations of business managers in private sector with 10+ employees.

Topics covered in services tendency survey:

• Business situation
• Demand (turnover)
• Employment
• Selling prices
• Possibility to increase activity without any change in current resources
• Main factors limiting business activity
• Fixed capital investment

Topics covered in retail trade tendency survey:

• Business activity (sales)
• Volume of stock
• Orders placed with suppliers
• Employment
• Selling prices
• Possibility to increase activity without any change in current resources
• Main factors limiting business activity
• Fixed capital investment

Topics covered in construction tendency survey:

• Building activity
• Main factors limiting business activity
• Overall order books
• Employment
• Selling prices
• Possibility to increase activity without any change in current resources
• Fixed capital investment

Classification: Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, Revision 2 (NACE, Rev. 2)

International and Regional Guidelines: Surveys are carried out within the context of business tendency statistics fully compliant with the guideline of “European Union Joint Harmonized European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys”.


Correction of non-response: Correction is applied for unit non-response.

Seasonal and Calendar Adjustment: 

Seasonal effects prevent observing the general trend of data because of their temporary characteristics. Therefore, identification of seasonal patterns of short term indicators plays crucial role in order to make reliable comparisons between consecutive periods.

Method and Software Used

Currently, TurkStat carries out the seasonal adjustment of Sectoral Confidence Indices (SCI), using TRAMO-SEATS methodology based on ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model estimation developed by Banco de Espana and also suggested by Eurostat. In the application of this method, JDemetra+ is used which is the software developed by the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) in cooperation with the Deutsche Bundesbank and Eurostat in accordance with the Guidelines of the European Statistical System.

Seasonal Adjustment Process

The seasonal adjustment process of SCI begins at the end of each year with the determination of model specifications, calendar effects and outliers of next year.  This specified composition is kept fixed throughout the year to adjust seasonal effects. At the end of the year, just like the previous year, the specification of econometric estimation models for the following year is determined. The identified process repeats itself in a cyclical manner each year.

Within the coverage of SCI, the subdivisions of services, retail trade and construction sectors are seasonally adjusted. As the calendar related effects are not statistically significant, SCI are published only as seasonally adjusted.  

Seasonal effects are not present in sub-indices “current volume of stock” in retail trade sector and “current overall order books” in construction sector. Additionally, seasonal effects in the sub-index “fixed capital investment expectation” in services, retail trade and construction sectors cannot be investigated due to insufficient observation since the index is published only in January and July periods.
 
Direct or Indirect Approach

Seasonally adjusted figures of SCI are produced following the indirect approach. Namely, the subdivisions of services, retail trade and construction sectors are firstly seasonally adjusted and then aggregated to derive seasonally adjusted indices.

Revision Policy

For SCI “partial concurrent adjustment” is carried out. Seasonal adjustment model specifications, outliers and calendar effects are identified annually while the parameters and filters are re-estimated each month as new data is available.  Since 2016, SCI series are not revised backwards.

Publication

SCI have been published as seasonally adjusted.  “Seasonally adjusted” data is derived from unadjusted data by removing effects originating from seasonal effects. Seasonally adjusted data should be used in comparisons regarding the previous month/period.

Source of Data: Services Sector Tendency Survey, Retail Trade Sector Tendency Survey, Construction Sector Tendency Survey.

Surveys are conducted on monthly basis via web-based program. The fieldwork period of the surveys is the first two weeks of the surveyed month. Survey results are published in the last week of the reference month with the press release “Sectoral Confidence Indices”.

Services, retail trade and construction tendency surveys has been applied in accordance with “The Joint Harmonised European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys” by European Commission co-funding since May 2011. 

Source of weights: Weighting coefficients are used to represent whole Turkey.

Geographical Coverage: Turkey

Sectoral Coverage: Services, retail trade, construction sectors

Business Covered: Private sector enterprises with 10+ employees of Business Registers are used as sample frame that is updated annually.

NACE, Rev. 2 activity coverage for services tendency survey: 

  • Land transport and transport via pipelines (49)
  • Water transport (50)
  • Air transport (51)
  • Warehousing and support activities for transportation (52)
  • Postal and courier activities (53) *
  • Accommodation (55)
  • Food and beverage service activities (56)
  • Publishing activities (58)
  • Motion picture, video and tv prog. prod., sound reco. and music pub. activities(59)
  • Programming and broadcasting activities(60) *
  • Telecommunications (61) *
  • Computer programming, consultancy and related activities (62)
  • Information service activities (63)
  • Real estate activities (68) *
  • Legal and accounting activities (69)
  • Activities of head offices; management consultancy activities (70)
  • Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis (71)
  • Advertising and market research (73)
  • Other professional, scientific and technical activities (74)
  • Rental and leasing activities (77)
  • Employment activities (78)
  • Travel agency, tour operator reservation service and related activities (79)
  • Security and investigation activities (80)
  • Services to buildings and landscape activities (81)
  • Office administrative, office support and other business support activities (82)
  • Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities (91)
  • Repair of computers and personal and household goods (95)

* Postal and courier activities (53), Telecommunications (61) and Real estate activities (68) have been included in Services Tendency Survey since 2017 and programming and broadcasting activities (60) are added to the coverage in 2018.

 
NACE, Rev. 2 activity  coverage for retail trade tendency survey:

  • Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (45)
  • Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (47)


NACE, Rev. 2 activity  coverage for construction tendency survey:

  • Construction of buildings (41)
  • Civil engineering (42)
  • Specialized construction activities (43) 
Revision is not foreseen for the year 2020. In case of any revision it will be shared with the public.